How to Bet on the Moneyline: An Irish Punter's Guide to American Odds, Plus and Minus Signs, and 1X2 Markets

Updated October 2026 · By the IrishBetGuide team

If you've ever watched an NFL game, a UFC card or an NBA match and seen odds like +150 or -200, you've met the moneyline. It's the American name for the simplest bet there is: who wins. The trouble is that Irish punters grow up on fractions like 6/4 and 10/11, so the plus and minus signs look like a maths exam. This guide sorts that out, then covers the bits that actually catch people out: draws, overtime, three-way markets and how the bookie's margin hides inside the numbers.

18+ only. Prices on this page are examples to explain the maths, not tips. The operator we link to, Cloudbet, holds a Curaçao licence and is not licensed in Ireland: it has no licence from the Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland (GRAI), so Irish player protections don't apply. Free, confidential help is available 24/7 on the Problem Gambling Helpline, 1800 936 725.

What a moneyline bet is

A moneyline bet is a bet on which side wins the game outright. There's no point spread or handicap, and no totals. If your team or fighter wins, you win. In Ireland and the UK we'd usually just call it a "match bet", "to win" or, in soccer, the "match result" or "1X2" market. American bookies call it the moneyline, and because so much US sport is now shown here, and so many crypto and international sites use American-style displays, the term has crossed the Atlantic.

The moneyline exists in almost every sport:

• NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB: pick the winner, usually including overtime or extra innings.
• UFC and boxing: pick the winner of the fight; draws are handled separately.
• Tennis and darts: pick the match winner; no draw possible.
• Soccer, rugby and GAA: draws are possible, so you'll see a three-way market (home, draw, away) as well as two-way versions.

How to read American odds: the plus and minus signs

American odds are always based on 100:

• A minus number (-200) is the favourite. It tells you how much you'd have to stake to win 100. At -200, you stake €200 to win €100 profit.
• A plus number (+150) is the underdog. It tells you how much profit you'd win from a 100 stake. At +150, a €100 stake wins €150 profit.

You don't have to bet 100, of course. The numbers just set the ratio. At -200, a €10 bet wins €5 profit. At +150, a €10 bet wins €15 profit. In both cases you also get your stake back if you win.

Quick formulas

• For minus odds: profit = stake × 100 ÷ odds (ignoring the minus). €10 at -250 = 10 × 100 ÷ 250 = €4 profit.
• For plus odds: profit = stake × odds ÷ 100. €10 at +320 = 10 × 320 ÷ 100 = €32 profit.

Converting moneyline odds to fractions and decimals

Here's a conversion table for the prices you'll see most:

The conversion rules

• Plus to decimal: (odds ÷ 100) + 1. +250 → 3.50.
• Minus to decimal: (100 ÷ odds) + 1. -250 → 1.40.
• Decimal to plus (when decimal is 2.00 or more): (decimal − 1) × 100. 2.80 → +180.
• Decimal to minus (when decimal is under 2.00): −100 ÷ (decimal − 1). 1.25 → -400.
• Fraction to decimal: (top ÷ bottom) + 1. 7/4 → 2.75.

Most betting sites, including crypto ones, let you switch the odds display between American, decimal and fractional in your settings. If the plus and minus signs annoy you, switch to fractions or decimals. The bet is exactly the same; only the presentation changes.

Implied probability: what the odds are really saying

Every price is the bookie's estimate of how likely something is, with a margin added. To get the implied probability:

• Minus odds: odds ÷ (odds + 100). -200 → 200 ÷ 300 = 66.7%.
• Plus odds: 100 ÷ (odds + 100). +150 → 100 ÷ 250 = 40%.
• Decimal: 1 ÷ decimal. 2.50 → 40%.

Why bother? Because a moneyline bet is only good value if you think the real chance of the outcome is higher than the implied probability. If you reckon a team wins 50% of the time and they're priced at +120 (45.5%), that's a bet worth considering. If they're -120 (54.5%), it isn't, even if you're confident they'll win.

Spotting the bookie's margin in a moneyline

Add up the implied probabilities on both sides of a two-way moneyline and you'll get more than 100%. The extra is the bookie's margin, sometimes called the vig, juice or overround.

Example: an NBA game priced Celtics -150, Knicks +130.

• -150 → 60.0%
• +130 → 43.5%
• Total: 103.5%, so the margin is about 3.5%.

A big US game might carry a margin of 3–5%. Smaller leagues, early prices and prop markets often carry more. Comparing that total across bookies is one of the quickest ways to see who offers the fairest prices.

The classic "standard" line is -110 on both sides of a coin-flip game: 52.4% + 52.4% = 104.8%. That's why you'll hear that you need to win about 52.4% of -110 bets just to break even.

Two-way and three-way moneylines

This is where Irish punters most often get caught, because so many of our sports can end level.

Two-way moneyline

Only two outcomes: side A or side B. Used where draws are impossible or very rare (tennis, darts, snooker, basketball, baseball, and NFL/NHL including overtime). If a draw somehow happens in a two-way market, such as a tied NFL game after overtime or a drawn UFC fight, bets are usually void and stakes returned, but always check the rules.

Three-way moneyline (1X2)

Three outcomes: home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2). Standard in soccer, and common in rugby and GAA. If you back a team in a three-way market and the match is drawn, you lose. That's the price you pay for better odds than a two-way market.

Hockey and the regulation-time trap

NHL games can be offered two ways: a moneyline that includes overtime and shootouts (two-way) and a "60-minute" or "regulation time" line (three-way, including the draw). They look similar, but they're very different bets. Back a team at 60 minutes and they win in overtime, and your bet loses. Read the market name every time.

Draw no bet: the halfway house

If you like a team in soccer or GAA but you're worried about a draw, "draw no bet" is the two-way version of the moneyline. Your team wins, you win. It's a draw, your stake comes back. Your team loses, you lose. The odds are shorter than backing the team in the three-way market, because the draw has been taken out as a risk.

Example: a League of Ireland match has Shamrock Rovers at 4/6 (1.67) to win in the three-way market, with the draw at 3/1. Rovers draw no bet might be around 2/5 (1.40). You get less if they win, but your stake is safe if it's level.

How to place a moneyline bet, step by step

1. Find the game in the sport and league menu.
2. Check which market you're looking at. "Moneyline", "Match Winner" or "To Win" may be two-way; "1X2", "Match Result" or "Full Time Result" are three-way. In hockey, check for "regulation time".
3. Click the price for the side you want. It goes into your bet slip.
4. Enter your stake in euro (or your currency). The slip shows your potential return.
5. Double-check the selection, the market and the stake. Then confirm.
6. Keep a record of the bet: date, game, market, odds, stake and result.

Favourites versus underdogs on the moneyline

Moneyline betting creates a constant temptation to back heavy favourites because "they never lose". They do. At -500 (1/5), you're risking €50 to win €10. One upset wipes out five wins. Some people string favourites together in accumulators to get a bigger price, but every extra leg adds another chance of a surprise, and the bookie's margin compounds with each leg.

Underdogs carry the opposite risk: they lose more often, so you need patience, a small stake, and a real reason to think the price is too big. A sensible approach for most people is to bet the moneyline only when the price looks wrong to you, not just because you think a team will win.

Where moneyline value tends to hide

• Injury and lineup news that the market hasn't fully priced in yet.
• Schedule spots: a team playing its third game in four nights in the NBA, or an NFL side on a short week.
• Overreaction to one result: a big win or loss can move prices further than it should.
• Home advantage that the market over- or under-rates, particularly in smaller leagues.
• Weather in outdoor sports, which can flatten the gap between teams.

Why some sites show American odds to Irish customers

Crypto sportsbooks and international bookies serve customers all over the world, so many default to decimal odds and offer American odds as an option, especially on US sports. If you've landed on a page full of plus and minus signs, look for an odds-format setting, usually in your account preferences or at the top of the sportsbook page. Changing it doesn't change the price, just how it's displayed. It's worth picking one format and sticking with it, so you build an instinct for what a fair price looks like.

Moneyline versus the spread

American sports offer two main ways to back a team: the moneyline and the point spread (in Irish terms, the handicap). The spread gives the underdog a head start, so both sides are priced near -110. The moneyline doesn't, so the favourite is short and the underdog is long.

Worked examples across the sports Irish punters follow

NFL: a Sunday night game

Say the Kansas City Chiefs are -180 and their opponents +155. A €20 bet on the Chiefs returns €31.11 (€11.11 profit) if they win, including overtime. A €20 bet on the underdog returns €51 (€31 profit). Implied probabilities: 64.3% and 39.2%, a total of 103.5%. If you think the underdog wins more than about 39% of the time, the +155 price is the one to think about.

Premier League: a three-way market

Liverpool are 4/5 (1.80, about -125) at home, the draw is 3/1 (4.00, +300) and the away side 7/2 (4.50, +350). Back Liverpool and they draw 1-1, and your bet loses. If that worries you, Liverpool draw no bet might be 1/2 (1.50, -200): lower return, but stake back on a draw.

Six Nations: Ireland at the Aviva

Rugby internationals are often offered as a three-way market with the draw at a long price, say 22/1, and a two-way "to win, draw no bet" version. If Ireland are 1/4 (1.25, -400), a €20 bet returns €25. That short price reflects how often big favourites win in rugby, but it still means one upset costs you four winning bets' worth of profit.

UFC: a main event

A fighter at -250 against an opponent at +210. A €10 bet on the favourite returns €14; on the underdog, €31. If the fight is ruled a draw, many two-way markets void the bet and return your stake. If an opponent withdraws and is replaced, bets on the original fight are usually void too.

Darts: a Premier League night

Darts has no draws in most formats, so it's a clean two-way moneyline. A player at 8/13 (1.62, about -163) against one at 6/5 (2.20, +120). Add up 61.9% and 45.5% and you get 107.4%, a fatter margin than a big NFL game, which is typical for smaller markets.

Live moneyline betting

Most sportsbooks keep the moneyline open during the game, with prices moving after every score. It's handy if a strong team goes behind early and you think they'll recover. But live prices move fast, margins are often higher, and it's easy to make impulsive bets. Decide your plan before the game starts, set a limit, and don't chase a losing pre-match bet with a live one. US games often run late into the Irish night, which is exactly when judgement gets worse.

Staking in euro: keep it simple

• Set a monthly betting budget you can afford to lose completely.
• Use a flat stake, for example 1–2% of that budget per bet.
• Don't increase stakes to chase losses.
• Track your results by sport and market so you know what works for you.
• If you bet in crypto, convert every stake back to euro. A balance in BTC or USDT can make stakes feel less real.

Common moneyline mistakes

• Backing a team in a three-way market and forgetting the draw loses.
• Betting NHL regulation-time lines by accident.
• Reading -150 as "150 to 1" rather than 2/3.
• Stacking heavy favourites into accumulators for a "safe" return.
• Ignoring the margin and betting at whichever site you happen to have open.
• Making live bets late at night after a pre-match bet went wrong.

A note on licensing in Ireland

Since 2026, the Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland has been licensing remote betting operators under the Gambling Regulation Act 2024. Licensed operators must follow Irish rules on customer protection, advertising and self-exclusion. Offshore sites, including Cloudbet with its Curaçao licence, are not licensed in Ireland, so the GRAI can't help with disputes and Irish protections don't apply. That doesn't change how a moneyline works, but it matters if something goes wrong.

Responsible gambling

Betting should be a bit of fun, not a way to make money or fix money problems. If you find yourself chasing losses, betting more than you planned, or hiding it, take a break and talk to someone. The Problem Gambling Helpline is free, confidential and open 24/7 on 1800 936 725.

My take

The moneyline is the simplest bet in sport once you know that minus means favourite, plus means underdog, and everything is based on 100. Convert to fractions or decimals if that's easier, always check whether a market is two-way or three-way, watch the hockey regulation-time trap, and bet only when the price looks wrong to you rather than just because you think a side will win. Keep stakes small and flat in euro, and remember that offshore operators like Cloudbet are not licensed in Ireland.