Cheltenham Betting Specials Explained: Ireland v Britain, Top Trainer, Winning Favourites and Other Festival Novelty Markets

Updated 20 Oct 2026 · By the IrishBetGuide Editorial Team

Once you've had a look at the big races, the bookies start waving a different kind of market at you: how many races Irish-trained horses will win, how many favourites will oblige across the week, which trainer finishes top, whether a horse in Tuesday's race finishes ahead of one in Thursday's. These are Cheltenham specials. They can be good fun and, now and again, decent value. They can also be some of the fattest-margin bets on the whole Festival. Here's how to tell the difference.

18+ only. There are no selections here, and every price, stake and percentage on this page is invented to show the maths. Cloudbet, which we link to, is licensed in Curaçao and is not licensed by the Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland (GRAI).

What counts as a "special"?

A special is any market that isn't simply "who wins this race". Some cover the whole Festival, some link two races together, and some are one-off novelty bets a bookmaker dreams up for the week. They tend to fall into a few families:

The common thread is that you're betting on a pattern across several races, not on one horse in one race. That changes how you think about the maths.

Why specials can carry a big margin

In a normal race market, lots of money and lots of sharp punters keep prices fairly tight. Specials get far less attention. Fewer people bet them, fewer people price them carefully and they're often marketed as fun bets. That gives the bookmaker room to build in a bigger margin.

The quick check is the same one you'd use on any market: turn each price into a chance and add them up. On an over/under special like "Irish-trained winners over 16.5" at 5/6 and under at 5/6, each side is 54.5%, so the total is 109.1%. That's a 9.1% overround on a two-way market, much fatter than a fair coin flip would suggest. On a fair book it would be close to 100%, meaning roughly evens each way.

A fat margin doesn't automatically mean don't bet. It means you need a stronger reason to think one side is wrong before it's worth it.

Ireland v Britain: the Festival's big rivalry

The best known of the specials is the Ireland-versus-Britain battle for the most Festival winners, often linked to the Prestbury Cup. Irish stables have been very strong at recent Festivals, which is why Irish punters love this market, and why the prices often reflect that strength already.

There are usually two ways to bet it:

• Match bet: Ireland, Britain, and sometimes a tie price.
• Handicap or line: Irish-trained winners over or under a number such as 15.5 or 16.5.

The trick is to stop thinking about "Ireland are flying" and start thinking race by race. Go through the card and, for each race, ask roughly how likely it is that an Irish-trained horse wins. Then add those chances together. That sum is your expected number of Irish winners.

In this invented example your expected total is 15.5. If the line is 16.5, under looks worth a look. If it's 14.5, over does. If it's 15.5, there's nothing in it for you once the margin comes off. Always check the actual card: the number of races and the mix of race types can change, and our numbers above are only an illustration.

How spread out can these totals be?

An expected total of 15.5 doesn't mean 15 or 16 is a near-certainty. Each race is a separate yes-or-no event, so the final count can land a few either side. A handy rule of thumb: for 28 races where each has a chance of around 55%, the typical swing is roughly two and a half winners either way. In plain words, you'd not be shocked by anything from 13 to 18.

That's why a one-winner gap between your number and the line is usually not much of an edge. You want a clear gap, ideally two winners or more, before getting excited, and a reason you trust for why the market has it wrong.

Number of winning favourites

Another popular special asks how many favourites will win over the week. The method is the same: go race by race. A heavy odds-on favourite in a small Grade 1 field might win far more often than a 6/1 favourite in a 24-runner handicap.

Those chances still include the bookmaker's margin, so the real ones are a bit lower. Add up the rough chance for each favourite across the week (you'll only know the real prices close to the day) and you get an expected number of winning favourites. Compare that with the line. Remember too that favourites can change during the week as the market moves, and the special settles on whoever is favourite at the off, which is usually based on the starting price. Check which rule your book uses, especially for joint favourites.

Top trainer and top jockey specials

These markets ask who trains or rides the most winners over the week. They work a lot like the Ireland v Britain line, except the question is about one yard or one rider. We've gone through the jockey version in detail in our Cheltenham top jockey guide, so here's the short version for trainers:

• Count how many runners the yard is likely to have and in which races.
• Estimate a rough chance for each runner and add them up to get expected winners.
• Compare the leading yards' expected totals with the prices on offer.
• Check the tie rule: is it decided on number of seconds, prize money, or dead-heat rules?

The big yards with dozens of runners usually dominate this market, and their prices are often short. The value, if there is any, tends to be in "without the favourite" versions or in match bets between two yards, where you're comparing two numbers instead of trying to beat the whole field.

If you follow Irish racing closely all year, our pages on the Irish trainers' championship and the Irish champion jockey markets use the same thinking over a full season.

Cross-race match bets

These are clever little markets. The bookmaker pairs two horses that aren't even in the same race and asks which will perform better, often measured by finishing position or distance behind the winner. They're settled once both races are run.

Before you bet one, find out exactly how it's settled:

• Is it the finishing position, or the distance behind the winner?
• What happens if one horse is a non-runner? Usually the bet is void, but not always.
• What happens if a horse falls or is pulled up? Often that counts as finishing behind any horse that completes.
• If both don't finish, is it a void or a tie?

A horse in a big-field handicap faces far more traffic and bad luck than one in a small Grade 1, so a straight finishing-position match can be lopsided even between horses of similar ability. Distance-behind-the-winner versions can be fairer, but they depend on margins that are hard to predict.

Race-day and novelty specials

Bookmakers like running specials that make you think about the whole day: "will there be a winner at 20/1 or bigger today?", "will any race be won by more than ten lengths?", or "how many odds-on winners today?". These can be fun but they're very hard to price well, which is exactly why the margin tends to be high.

If you want to have a go, use the same race-by-race thinking. For "a 20/1+ winner today", estimate the chance of a big-priced winner in each race, then work out the chance of none at all. Say over seven races you think the chance of a 20/1+ winner in each is 8%, 5%, 12%, 3%, 15%, 6% and 10%. The chance of none is 0.92 × 0.95 × 0.88 × 0.97 × 0.85 × 0.94 × 0.90 ≈ 0.54, so the chance of at least one is about 46%. If the special pays evens, it's close to fair on your numbers. If it pays 4/6, it isn't.

Price boosts dressed up as specials

Many "specials" at Cheltenham are really boosted doubles or trebles: two well-fancied horses offered together at a price a bit bigger than you'd get by multiplying their odds. They can be genuinely good, but only if the boosted price beats what you could get by backing the legs at the best odds elsewhere. Our Cheltenham bet boosts guide has a quick test for these, including stake caps that limit how much they're really worth. If you prefer building your own combinations, see our Cheltenham bet builder page.

Settlement rules that catch people out

Specials often have rules that differ from normal race betting. Before staking anything, check:

Take a screenshot of the special and its rules when you place it. Festival-long markets can sit for days, and you'll want proof of exactly what you bet.

When specials can actually be good value

Despite the margins, there are moments when specials make sense:

• Your race-by-race view clearly differs from the line, by two or more winners, not half a winner.
• Something big changes after the special is priced, such as a major yard's runners being withdrawn or the going changing a lot, and the line hasn't moved.
• Mid-Festival, when one or two days have been run and the remaining races are clearer. Some books keep prices up on totals as the week goes on, and you can recount with fewer unknowns.
• Match bets between two yards or two jockeys, where comparing two numbers is easier than beating a whole market.

Sizing your specials

Because specials settle late and often have bigger margins, keep stakes smaller than your normal race bets. A sensible approach is to set aside a small slice of your Festival pot, say 10%, for specials and novelty bets, and not top it up when you lose. If your Festival pot is €200, that's €20 for specials across the week, perhaps four bets of €5. That way they stay a bit of fun alongside your main betting.

Common mistakes with Cheltenham specials

• Betting the headline, not the maths: "Ireland always win" isn't a reason to take a short price on over.
• Ignoring the margin: two-way specials at 5/6 each side are much worse than they look.
• Not reading the tie and dead-heat rules: these decide more specials than you'd think.
• Too many novelty bets: each has a fat margin, and they add up over four days.
• Forgetting non-runners: late withdrawals can wreck cross-race match bets and totals.
• Chasing on Friday: loading up on specials late in the week to win back Tuesday and Wednesday.

A quick specials checklist

1. Work out the overround. If it's well over 105% on a two-way market, you need a strong reason.
2. Build your own number race by race.
3. Only bet if the gap is clear, not marginal.
4. Read the rules on ties, dead heats, joint favourites and abandoned races.
5. Screenshot the bet and rules.
6. Keep stakes small and inside a set specials budget.

New to Festival betting? Start with our Cheltenham betting guide, then look at ante-post betting and backing outsiders. Our page on how horse racing betting works covers the basics, and the bet calculator helps you check returns.

Licensing and where you bet

In Ireland, gambling is regulated by the GRAI. Cloudbet, which we link to, is licensed in Curaçao and is not licensed by the GRAI, so you won't get the same protections you'd have with an Irish-licensed operator. Make your own choice with that in mind. Our page on whether online betting is legal in Ireland covers the legal side in more detail.

Keep it fun

Cheltenham week is great craic, and specials can add to it, but four days of betting can get away from anyone. If you notice you're betting more than you planned, chasing losses or hiding bets, stop and talk to someone. Gambling Care is free, confidential and open 24/7 on 1800 936 725 (Northern Ireland: 08000 886 725). Our responsible gambling page has more support options.